Winner Of Governor's Race Will Face Challenges, Lasley Says

October 30, 2007

Bowling Green, Ky. - The winner of next week’s gubernatorial election in Kentucky will face a lot more issues than casino gambling, according to Dr. Scott Lasley, assistant professor of political science at Western Kentucky University.

“Whoever is elected will find some real challenges facing our state,” including education, health care, state retirement issues and economic development, Dr. Lasley said. “Kentucky has a lot of questions that need to be answered but not necessarily the resources to find easy answers to them.”

As Gov. Ernie Fletcher, the Republican incumbent, and Steve Beshear, the Democratic challenger, enter the final days of the campaign, Dr. Lasley provided the following insights and observations about the 2007 election:

*Timing is everything. While planning and strategic decisions are important for politicians, timing plays a key role. “Steve Beshear has benefited from running at the right time,” Lasley said.

*Small things have a big effect. “The extra 1 percent of the vote that Beshear received in the primary to avoid a runoff was a big thing,” Lasley said. “A runoff would have drained resources and exposed him to tougher campaigning.”

*A viable challenger in a primary election almost always does damage to an incumbent. “That’s what we saw here in Kentucky this year,” he said. “The Democrats have been able to echo some of the criticisms leveled by Anne Northup against Fletcher during the primary.”

*Election rules matter. Kentucky’s use of straight ticket voting may provide anxious moments for Republican candidates down the ballot, he said. When you get past the governor’s race, the other offices – secretary of state, commissioner of agriculture, auditor, etc. -- are low-information races where candidates might not be as well known.

*GOP momentum has slowed at least temporarily. After a decade of positive momentum, including winning the governor’s race for the first time in 32 years, the Republican Party is facing some challenges. The primary election exposed divisions within the party and the Democratic Party has benefited from anti-Fletcher sentiment, Dr. Lasley said.

*State and national politics from the past couple of years not only impact the 2007 races but also upcoming elections in 2008, 2010 and 2011. One of the consequences is how events have affected the pool of candidates for upcoming races, he said. “Assuming that pre-election polls hold up, Democrats Daniel Mongiardo, Jack Conway and Crit Luallen are among the candidates whose stock is likely to rise,” Dr. Lasley said. “Lt. Gov. Steve Pence and House Minority Leader Jeff Hoover are among a list of Republicans with potential statewide appeal but now face somewhat more complicated prospects after events from the past year.”

*Technology is becoming more important. Even though traditional media and campaign appearances remain the key for spreading campaign messages, some candidates are using technology to connect with their supporters and potential voters. Blogs, social networking sites (such as Facebook and MySpace) and video sharing sites (like You Tube) help spread information or keep stories alive, Dr. Lasley said.
               
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For information, contact Scott Lasley at (270) 745-4558